The feature of the industry, such as high fragmentation of suppliers and lack of stability in scrap supply from different sources, hinders balance forecasting, in particular, adequate estimation of scrap volumes.We have developed a qualitatively new methodology of scrap collection forecasting presented in the given work. The developed approach is based on the analysis of prices for scrap and pig iron as an effective instrument of scrap collection regulation. The used approach allows us to forecast the scrap balance, estimate the market deficiency level and determine possible variants of deficiency payments according to the economic efficiency of steel and pig iron production. Also, there is presented the analysis of probable transition of Ukraine from a net exporting country into net-importing one. In such a case all conceptual conclusions are proved by certain estimations of economic indicators.
In general, the given work is a complex analysis of current state of scrap collection industry and generation of the detailed scenario of scrap collection development until 2020.